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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Energie Cottbus

ENE

Hertha BSC

HER

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Energie Cottbus31%
Draw24%
Hertha BSC45%

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.85

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.0%
  • 1–28.9%
  • 2–17.2%
  • 2–26.9%
  • 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession48%
41%Territory35%
23%From set plays28%
0.11Chance quality0.12
6.7%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Energie Cottbus, 3 for Hertha BSC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.