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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Magdeburg

MAG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld44%
Draw27%
Magdeburg29%

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.20

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–18.1%
  • 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession52%
33%Territory36%
33%From set plays26%
0.08Chance quality0.07
5.8%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for Magdeburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.