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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Kaiserslautern

KAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfL Osnabrück31%
Draw28%
Kaiserslautern41%

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.41

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 0–110.6%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

40%Possession48%
32%Territory41%
26%From set plays28%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.0%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for Kaiserslautern. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.