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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Kaiserslautern

KAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfL Osnabrück41%
Draw27%
Kaiserslautern32%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.29

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 0–18.2%
  • 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

42%Possession44%
34%Territory29%
21%From set plays19%
0.15Chance quality0.11
4.9%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for Kaiserslautern. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.