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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

Greuther Fürth

GRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden45%
Draw26%
Greuther Fürth29%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.27

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.3%
  • 1–27.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dynamo Dresden get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

58%Possession55%
31%Territory40%
42%From set plays10%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.0%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for Greuther Fürth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.