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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

Greuther Fürth

GRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden55%
Draw24%
Greuther Fürth21%

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.09

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–08.9%
  • 3–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dynamo Dresden get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

49%Possession50%
31%Territory27%
39%From set plays18%
0.15Chance quality0.06
4.7%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for Greuther Fürth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.