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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

1. FC Nürnberg52%
Draw26%
Darmstadt22%

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.04

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.8%
  • 1–111.7%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–09.0%
  • 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

1. FC Nürnberg will have the ball; Darmstadt will not mind.

54%Possession39%
35%Territory25%
13%From set plays50%
0.10Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.