2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Magdeburg
MAG
St. Pauli
STP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Magdeburg47%
Draw27%
St. Pauli26%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.08
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
36%Territory47%
26%From set plays32%
0.07Chance quality0.09
6.8%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Magdeburg, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Magdeburg
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.