2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Magdeburg
MAG
St. Pauli
STP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Magdeburg46%
Draw26%
St. Pauli28%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.23
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession56%
38%Territory42%
44%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.11
7.6%Directness2.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Magdeburg, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.