2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Arminia Bielefeld
ARM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Holstein Kiel36%
Draw29%
Arminia Bielefeld35%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.24
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession50%
40%Territory33%
35%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.08
4.9%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.