2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Hertha BSC
HER
Wolfsburg
WOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hertha BSC63%
Draw21%
Wolfsburg15%
Expected goals
2.05 – 0.94
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.9%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession62%
39%Territory39%
7%From set plays20%
0.15Chance quality0.06
4.6%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hertha BSC, 3 for Wolfsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hertha BSC
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.