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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Hertha BSC

HER

Wolfsburg

WOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hertha BSC55%
Draw23%
Wolfsburg22%

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.23

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.9%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 2–07.9%
  • 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Wolfsburg will have the ball; Hertha BSC will not mind.

48%Possession56%
35%Territory35%
28%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.7%Directness5.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hertha BSC, 3 for Wolfsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.