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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Bochum

BOC

Karlsruher SC

KAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bochum51%
Draw26%
Karlsruher SC23%

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.03

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.9%
  • 1–111.8%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 2–09.0%
  • 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession45%
39%Territory40%
38%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.09
6.1%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bochum, 3 for Karlsruher SC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.