Skip to content

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Greuther Fürth

GRE

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Greuther Fürth40%
Draw27%
Holstein Kiel32%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.27

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.3%
  • 109.9%
  • 218.7%
  • 018.6%
  • 007.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Holstein Kiel get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

55%Possession53%
40%Territory40%
10%From set plays35%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Greuther Fürth, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.