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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 9

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Kaiserslautern

KAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

1. FC Nürnberg46%
Draw28%
Kaiserslautern26%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.06

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–012.1%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–09.0%
  • 0–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kaiserslautern get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

54%Possession48%
35%Territory41%
13%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.8%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Kaiserslautern. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.