2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Dynamo Dresden
DYN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Holstein Kiel42%
Draw28%
Dynamo Dresden31%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.20
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession58%
40%Territory31%
35%From set plays42%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.9%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Dynamo Dresden. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.