2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
Hertha BSC
HER
Arminia Bielefeld
ARM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hertha BSC49%
Draw25%
Arminia Bielefeld25%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.17
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession50%
35%Territory33%
28%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.08
6.7%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hertha BSC, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hertha BSC
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.