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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 8

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Hertha BSC

HER

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Holstein Kiel31%
Draw27%
Hertha BSC42%

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.51

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–19.7%
  • 1–28.9%
  • 1–08.1%
  • 2–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession48%
40%Territory35%
35%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.12
4.9%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Hertha BSC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.