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2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 8

Hannover 96

HAN

St. Pauli

STP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hannover 9656%
Draw25%
St. Pauli19%

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.96

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1012.3%
  • 1111.2%
  • 2010.0%
  • 219.8%
  • 007.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession52%
40%Territory47%
25%From set plays32%
0.14Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hannover 96, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.