2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 8
Hannover 96
HAN
St. Pauli
STP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hannover 9656%
Draw25%
St. Pauli19%
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.96
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession52%
40%Territory47%
25%From set plays32%
0.14Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hannover 96, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.