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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 8

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld52%
Draw25%
VfL Osnabrück22%

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.05

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 1–011.4%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–08.9%
  • 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arminia Bielefeld will have the ball; VfL Osnabrück will not mind.

50%Possession40%
33%Territory32%
33%From set plays26%
0.08Chance quality0.13
5.8%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for VfL Osnabrück. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.