2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 7
St. Pauli
STP
Karlsruher SC
KAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli44%
Draw27%
Karlsruher SC29%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.21
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession49%
47%Territory40%
32%From set plays43%
0.09Chance quality0.09
4.6%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Karlsruher SC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.