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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 6

Energie Cottbus

ENE

St. Pauli

STP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Energie Cottbus44%
Draw26%
St. Pauli30%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.30

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–09.3%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–17.4%
  • 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession52%
41%Territory47%
23%From set plays32%
0.11Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Energie Cottbus, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.