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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 6

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

FC Heidenheim

FCH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld45%
Draw26%
FC Heidenheim29%

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.24

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 2–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arminia Bielefeld will have the ball; FC Heidenheim will not mind.

50%Possession40%
33%Territory30%
33%From set plays28%
0.08Chance quality0.17
5.8%Directness9.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for FC Heidenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.