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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 24

Union Berlin

UNI

Augsburg

AUG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Union Berlin33%
Draw28%
Augsburg39%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.35

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 0–110.5%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 0–08.7%
  • 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Augsburg will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.

36%Possession59%
33%Territory45%
48%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.10
6.0%Directness3.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.