Bundesliga · Matchweek 24
Hamburger SV
HAM
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV36%
Draw32%
Paderborn32%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.04
Over 2.5
37%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.1%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paderborn will have the ball; Hamburger SV will not mind.
40%Possession53%
32%Territory38%
46%From set plays64%
0.08Chance quality0.09
7.5%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Paderborn
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.