Bundesliga · Matchweek 24
Eintracht Frankfurt
SGE
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Frankfurt32%
Draw30%
Dortmund38%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.23
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession55%
37%Territory41%
17%From set plays32%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Frankfurt, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Frankfurt
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.