Bundesliga · Matchweek 24
Bayern München
BAY
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München73%
Draw17%
Freiburg10%
Expected goals
2.37 – 0.81
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.8%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Freiburg will not mind.
58%Possession48%
43%Territory34%
16%From set plays32%
0.16Chance quality0.10
4.5%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.