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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 24

Bayer Leverkusen

LEV

Hoffenheim

HOF

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Leverkusen35%
Draw27%
Hoffenheim38%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.46

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 1–28.5%
  • 1–08.4%
  • 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

57%Possession51%
41%Territory44%
21%From set plays11%
0.09Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leverkusen, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Leverkusen

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.