Bundesliga · Matchweek 23
RB Leipzig
RBL
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Leipzig28%
Draw24%
Bayern München48%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.82
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 0–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession58%
31%Territory43%
24%From set plays16%
0.17Chance quality0.16
3.5%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for RB Leipzig, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.