Bundesliga · Matchweek 23
Mainz 05
MAI
Schalke 04
SCH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz60%
Draw24%
Schalke 0416%
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.80
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.3%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Mainz will have the ball; Schalke 04 will not mind.
51%Possession42%
43%Territory37%
11%From set plays60%
0.14Chance quality0.07
6.0%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Schalke 04. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Schalke 04
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.