Bundesliga · Matchweek 23
Freiburg
FRE
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg40%
Draw27%
Leverkusen33%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.32
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen will have the ball; Freiburg will not mind.
48%Possession57%
34%Territory41%
32%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Leverkusen
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.