Bundesliga · Matchweek 23
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Union Berlin
UNI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund56%
Draw27%
Union Berlin17%
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.75
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
42%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.2%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–19.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Dortmund will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.
55%Possession36%
41%Territory33%
32%From set plays48%
0.08Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.