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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 22

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Paderborn

PAD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart57%
Draw24%
Paderborn19%

Expected goals

1.81 – 0.98

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.7%
  • 1–110.9%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–09.9%
  • 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

58%Possession53%
45%Territory38%
31%From set plays64%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.8%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.