Bundesliga · Matchweek 22
Bayern München
BAY
Augsburg
AUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München76%
Draw15%
Augsburg9%
Expected goals
2.75 – 0.94
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–09.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession59%
43%Territory45%
16%From set plays31%
0.16Chance quality0.10
4.5%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.