Bundesliga · Matchweek 22
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leverkusen44%
Draw26%
Mainz31%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.33
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession51%
41%Territory43%
21%From set plays11%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.4%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leverkusen, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Leverkusen
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.