Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
Union Berlin
UNI
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Union Berlin12%
Draw20%
Bayern München68%
Expected goals
0.76 – 2.05
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.8%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–38.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.
36%Possession58%
33%Territory43%
48%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.16
6.0%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.