Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
RB Leipzig
RBL
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Leipzig57%
Draw22%
Leverkusen21%
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.21
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession57%
31%Territory41%
24%From set plays21%
0.17Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for RB Leipzig, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Leverkusen
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.