Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
Mainz 05
MAI
Borussia Mönchengladbach
BMG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz48%
Draw27%
M'gladbach25%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.09
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Mainz will have the ball; M'gladbach will not mind.
51%Possession40%
43%Territory26%
11%From set plays21%
0.14Chance quality0.12
6.0%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for M'gladbach. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.