Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
Hoffenheim
HOF
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim59%
Draw25%
Paderborn16%
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.81
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.4%
- 2–011.6%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession53%
44%Territory38%
11%From set plays64%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.6%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hoffenheim
Paderborn
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.