Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
Freiburg
FRE
Eintracht Frankfurt
SGE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg41%
Draw29%
Frankfurt30%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.13
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–09.8%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession50%
34%Territory37%
32%From set plays17%
0.10Chance quality0.12
3.5%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Frankfurt. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Frankfurt
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.