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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Borussia Dortmund

DOR

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dortmund46%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart28%

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.19

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 2–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession58%
41%Territory45%
32%From set plays31%
0.08Chance quality0.12
4.3%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.