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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Hoffenheim

HOF

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart38%
Draw27%
Hoffenheim35%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.43

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 0–18.1%
  • 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

VfB Stuttgart get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

58%Possession51%
45%Territory44%
31%From set plays11%
0.12Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.