Bundesliga · Matchweek 20
Paderborn
PAD
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn25%
Draw30%
Dortmund46%
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.32
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession55%
38%Territory41%
64%From set plays32%
0.09Chance quality0.08
7.0%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.