Bundesliga · Matchweek 20
Hamburger SV
HAM
RB Leipzig
RBL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV19%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig57%
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.80
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
RB Leipzig will have the ball; Hamburger SV will not mind.
40%Possession51%
32%Territory31%
46%From set plays24%
0.08Chance quality0.17
7.5%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.