Bundesliga · Matchweek 20
Eintracht Frankfurt
SGE
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Frankfurt40%
Draw28%
Mainz32%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.21
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession51%
37%Territory43%
17%From set plays11%
0.12Chance quality0.14
5.8%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Frankfurt, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Frankfurt
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.