Bundesliga · Matchweek 20
Borussia Mönchengladbach
BMG
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
M'gladbach37%
Draw29%
Freiburg34%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.20
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession48%
26%Territory34%
21%From set plays32%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.7%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for M'gladbach, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.