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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Union Berlin

UNI

Bayer Leverkusen

LEV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Union Berlin23%
Draw25%
Leverkusen52%

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.69

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 0–111.3%
  • 1–29.7%
  • 0–28.8%
  • 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Leverkusen will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.

50%Possession65%
34%Territory51%
70%From set plays35%
0.09Chance quality0.11
4.2%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.