Bundesliga · Matchweek 19
Mainz 05
MAI
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz58%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV17%
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.85
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession45%
45%Territory33%
25%From set plays20%
0.11Chance quality0.08
5.4%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.