Bundesliga · Matchweek 19
Mainz 05
MAI
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz55%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV19%
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.90
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Mainz will have the ball; Hamburger SV will not mind.
51%Possession40%
43%Territory32%
11%From set plays46%
0.14Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.