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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Freiburg

FRE

Paderborn

PAD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Freiburg49%
Draw28%
Paderborn23%

Expected goals

1.43 – 0.92

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

47%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–014.1%
  • 1–112.6%
  • 0–010.7%
  • 2–09.3%
  • 2–19.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

48%Possession53%
34%Territory38%
32%From set plays64%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.