Bundesliga · Matchweek 19
Freiburg
FRE
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg59%
Draw25%
Paderborn16%
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.77
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.2%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession51%
43%Territory30%
23%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.06
5.6%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.