Bundesliga · Matchweek 19
1. FC Köln
FCK
VfB Stuttgart
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Köln35%
Draw28%
VfB Stuttgart37%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.32
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession58%
42%Territory45%
37%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.12
4.7%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Köln, 3 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Köln
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
VfB Stuttgart
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.