Bundesliga · Matchweek 19
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Hoffenheim
HOF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund56%
Draw25%
Hoffenheim20%
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.98
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession54%
37%Territory45%
10%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.