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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Borussia Dortmund

DOR

Hoffenheim

HOF

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dortmund40%
Draw29%
Hoffenheim31%

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.12

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–011.9%
  • 0–010.3%
  • 0–110.1%
  • 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dortmund get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

55%Possession51%
41%Territory44%
32%From set plays11%
0.08Chance quality0.12
4.3%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.