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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Bayern München

BAY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart20%
Draw22%
Bayern München58%

Expected goals

1.22 – 2.12

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–29.8%
  • 1–19.3%
  • 0–18.1%
  • 0–28.0%
  • 1–36.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession58%
45%Territory43%
31%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.16
4.8%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.