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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Bayern München

BAY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart20%
Draw21%
Bayern München59%

Expected goals

1.23 – 2.18

Over 2.5

65%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–29.7%
  • 1–19.0%
  • 0–27.9%
  • 0–17.8%
  • 1–37.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bayern München will have the ball; VfB Stuttgart will not mind.

52%Possession71%
42%Territory59%
27%From set plays14%
0.12Chance quality0.14
4.2%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.