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Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Schalke 04

SCH

Augsburg

AUG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Schalke 0437%
Draw27%
Augsburg36%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.40

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.1%
  • 108.8%
  • 018.8%
  • 218.2%
  • 128.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

34%Possession42%
28%Territory32%
25%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Schalke 04, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.