Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
Paderborn
PAD
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn27%
Draw29%
Mainz44%
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.37
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.7%
- 0–010.2%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession50%
30%Territory45%
18%From set plays25%
0.06Chance quality0.11
5.4%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.