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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Paderborn

PAD

Mainz 05

MAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Paderborn31%
Draw29%
Mainz40%

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.30

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.0%
  • 0–111.8%
  • 0–010.1%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession51%
38%Territory43%
64%From set plays11%
0.09Chance quality0.14
7.0%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.